To achieve our full potential on the world stage, Europe needs a young, growing population sustained by high birth rates encouraged by strategic social policies
Europe is aging. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy are accelerating our transition towards a significantly older population structure, a development which is already apparent in several EU Member States.
As a result, the share of older people in the total population will increase significantly in the coming decades. This will lead to an increased tax burden on those of working age to provide for the social expenditure required by the aging population.
This situation presents a fundamental challenge: it precludes any real possibility of Europe fully developing into a world power. One cannot achieve great power status with an aging, declining population which will overburden its younger generation for a critical part of this century.
Demographic change directly affects Europe’s geopolitical situation and strategy. Throughout history, states have worked to maintain high birth rates in order to generate more taxes, more economic activity and more troops for their defense.
Europe cannot achieve and maintain superpower status with a declining, aging population, which will burden the coming generations for the remaining part of the century.
Generally, the strength of a republic lies in its numbers, and the large states were usually the ones shaping regional or international geopolitical order. High population alone does not make a country successful; in fact, it can lead to generalized poverty or social unrest. However, most states that became regional or global leaders did so during a population surge.
Immigration has been positioned in recent years as the main lever to solve the demographic challenge of Europe. Indeed, when targeting highly-skilled migrants of similar economic characteristics, migration policies can positively contribute to society. However, uncontrolled mass migration has not been shown to drive such benefits; instead it increases tensions and places a significant stress on the receiving population.
Key Demographic Statistics, 2100
|Country||Old Age Dep %, 2100||Total Pop, 2100|
|Europe – baseline||60.2%||364M|
|Europe – no migration||65.7%||307M|
|Europe – high fertility||45.6%||515M|
The conclusion is clear: immigration alone cannot solve the aging of Europe.
Moreover, the strength of a republic lies in its shared belief in a common future, unity of purpose, cultural and social cohesiveness, and ability to structurally work together towards distant goals.
To achieve its full potential and to preserve its leading role in the world, Europe needs to rejuvenate and grow its population through strategic fiscal, educational, and labor policies encouraging increased fertility in our European peoples.
To encourage organic population growth, the following policies should be implemented:
Implementing the above policies will encourage organic population growth, and will help alleviate the tax burden on the workforce in the next decades (in addition to other measures such as increased rate of labor participation of female workforce).
Our ability to grow, develop, educate, and productively employ a highly skilled population will become the fundamental competitive advantage of Europe on the world stage in the 21st century.